Will John Barrasso (R) win the 2024 Wyoming Senate seat?
  • 279
  • 35
  • $26,496
The markets are asking whether a Republican will win the 2024 Wyoming Senate seat. The resolution criteria vary slightly among platforms, but most focus on determining the winner of the popular vote as certified by local, state, and federal authorities. In some cases, the market may resolve early if the race is called by major news organizations before Election Day. A change in party affiliation after the start of voting will not affect the outcome if it occurs after November 5. The market's resolution source includes official certification based on all three major news outlets' calls for the same candidate.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0034
-0.0598
0.9981
Time-Weighted Average
A+
0.0001
-0.0112
0.9999
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.015
-0.001
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0005
-0.0231
0.9997
Time-Weighted Average
A+
0.0005
-0.0226
0.9997
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0214
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0214
0.9998
Relative Score
B-
-0.004
+0.026
+0.003
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0042
-0.0672
0.9976
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0031
-0.0574
0.9983
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0131
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0146
0.9999
Relative Score
C
+0.003
-0.020
-0.002
  • Overall
  • 279
  • 35
  • $26,496
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0027
-0.0500
0.9985
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0012
-0.0304
0.9993
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0149
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0154
0.9999

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