Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.1222 | -0.4301 | 0.8809 |
Time-Weighted Average | C- | 0.0239 | -0.1679 | 0.9837 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.2769 | -0.7470 | 0.6691 |
7 Days Before Close | D- | 0.1358 | -0.4597 | 0.8637 |
Relative Score | A | -0.017 | +0.035 | +0.022 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.1620 | -0.5149 | 0.8294 |
Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.1935 | -0.5795 | 0.7865 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.2704 | -0.7340 | 0.6782 |
7 Days Before Close | D- | 0.2476 | -0.6884 | 0.7105 |
Relative Score | A | -0.021 | +0.041 | +0.029 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.2508 | -0.6948 | 0.7059 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.2597 | -0.7125 | 0.6934 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.2844 | -0.7621 | 0.6585 |
7 Days Before Close | D- | 0.1369 | -0.4620 | 0.8623 |
Relative Score | D- | +0.029 | -0.058 | -0.040 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.1783 | -0.5466 | 0.8054 |
Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.1590 | -0.4866 | 0.8212 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.2773 | -0.7477 | 0.6686 |
7 Days Before Close | D- | 0.1735 | -0.5367 | 0.8121 |
Kalshi | B+ | -0.010 |
Manifold | C+ | -0.002 |
Polymarket | C | +0.002 |