Will Bernie Moreno (R) win the 2024 Ohio Senate seat?
  • 279
  • 1,427
  • $3,350,712
This market resolves to "Yes" if Bernie Moreno or another Republican representative is sworn in as a Senator of Ohio for the term beginning in 2025, determined by local, state, and federal governments. If Party A's candidate wins the popular vote on Election Day, November 5, but a subsequent event causes the next inaugurated Senator to be from Party B, the market will still resolve to Party A if they were the original winner. The outcome is not affected by a party switch made after the beginning of Election Day. The resolution source is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, which will call the race for the same candidate before resolving the market.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1222
-0.4301
0.8809
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0239
-0.1679
0.9837
30 Days Before Close
F
0.2769
-0.7470
0.6691
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1358
-0.4597
0.8637
Relative Score
A
-0.017
+0.035
+0.022
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1620
-0.5149
0.8294
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1935
-0.5795
0.7865
30 Days Before Close
F
0.2704
-0.7340
0.6782
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.2476
-0.6884
0.7105
Relative Score
A
-0.021
+0.041
+0.029
  • Polymarket
  • 218
  • 1,225
  • $1,556,618

Will a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2508
-0.6948
0.7059
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2597
-0.7125
0.6934
30 Days Before Close
F
0.2844
-0.7621
0.6585
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1369
-0.4620
0.8623
Relative Score
D-
+0.029
-0.058
-0.040
  • Overall
  • 279
  • 1,427
  • $3,350,712
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1783
-0.5466
0.8054
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1590
-0.4866
0.8212
30 Days Before Close
F
0.2773
-0.7477
0.6686
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1735
-0.5367
0.8121

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