Will David McCormick (R) win the 2024 Pennsylvania Senate seat?
  • 279
  • 1,216
  • $4,409,116
If David McCormick (R) wins the 2024 Pennsylvania Senate seat, then he is sworn into office as a Senator of Pennsylvania for the term beginning in 2025. The outcome is determined by the party that won the popular vote in the election, as certified by local, state, and federal governments. The market resolves when one of the major news organizations calls the race for McCormick or his Republican opponent; if the race is called early, it will resolve to either "Yes" or "No". If McCormick switches parties after Election Day, the switch won't affect the outcome. The resolution source is based on a tie among Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 89
  • $1,843,619

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Pennsylvania? | :: or another Republican

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4175
-1.0389
0.4803
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0666
-0.2985
0.9445
30 Days Before Close
F
0.6376
-1.6020
0.2447
7 Days Before Close
F
0.4516
-1.1148
0.4386
Relative Score
B+
-0.010
+0.023
+0.011
  • Manifold
  • 280
  • 79
  • $848

Pennsylvania US Senate Race 2024: Bob Casey Jr. vs. David McCormick | David McCormick (Republican Party)

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.6604
-1.6748
0.2246
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.6146
-1.5323
0.2657
30 Days Before Close
F
0.5669
-1.3980
0.3118
7 Days Before Close
F
0.4153
-1.0341
0.4830
Relative Score
C+
-0.002
+0.008
+0.002
  • Polymarket
  • 233
  • 1,137
  • $2,564,649

Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5476
-1.3471
0.3315
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.5504
-1.3545
0.3286
30 Days Before Close
F
0.6347
-1.5929
0.2473
7 Days Before Close
F
0.4900
-1.2040
0.3939
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.009
-0.002
  • Overall
  • 279
  • 1,216
  • $4,409,116
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5418
-1.3536
0.3455
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4105
-1.0617
0.5129
30 Days Before Close
F
0.6130
-1.5310
0.2679
7 Days Before Close
F
0.4523
-1.1176
0.4385

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