Will Jim Banks (R) win the 2024 Indiana Senate seat?
  • 279
  • 48
  • $43,382
Will Jim Banks (R) win the 2024 Indiana Senate seat if he is a member of the party that ultimately wins the popular vote, as determined by local, state, and federal governments. The market will resolve once all three major news organizations call the race for his party or until the official certification confirms the winner's party affiliation. If candidate Banks switches parties after Election Day, the switch won't affect the outcome if it occurs before the day of the election. The market resolves to yes if the Republican candidate wins the popular vote on Election Day, November 5, 2024. Resolution is contingent upon confirmation by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 66
  • $11,972

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Indiana? | :: or another Republican

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0013
-0.0373
0.9993
Time-Weighted Average
A+
0.0003
-0.0188
0.9998
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0009
-0.0305
0.9995
Relative Score
C
+0.000
-0.006
-0.000
  • Manifold
  • 279
  • 8
  • $10

Indiana US Senate Race 2024: Jim Banks vs. Valerie McCray | Jim Banks (Republican Party)

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0011
-0.0343
0.9994
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0011
-0.0332
0.9994
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0011
-0.0333
0.9994
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0208
0.9998
Relative Score
B-
-0.003
+0.018
+0.002
  • Polymarket
  • 209
  • 40
  • $31,400

Will a Republican win Indiana US Senate Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0036
-0.0619
0.9980
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0042
-0.0673
0.9976
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0238
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0197
0.9998
Relative Score
C
+0.003
-0.018
-0.002
  • Overall
  • 279
  • 48
  • $43,382
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A-
0.0020
-0.0445
0.9989
Time-Weighted Average
A-
0.0019
-0.0398
0.9989
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0258
0.9996
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0237
0.9997

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