Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | A+ | 0.0005 | -0.0236 | 0.9997 |
Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0017 | -0.0420 | 0.9991 |
30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0017 | -0.0421 | 0.9991 |
7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0009 | -0.0311 | 0.9995 |
Relative Score | C+ | -0.002 | +0.008 | +0.002 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0042 | -0.0672 | 0.9976 |
Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0033 | -0.0588 | 0.9982 |
30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0141 | 0.9999 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0156 | 0.9999 |
Relative Score | C | +0.002 | -0.008 | -0.002 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | B+ | 0.0024 | -0.0454 | 0.9987 |
Time-Weighted Average | B+ | 0.0025 | -0.0504 | 0.9986 |
30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0009 | -0.0281 | 0.9995 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0006 | -0.0233 | 0.9997 |
Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
Manifold | C | +0.002 |
Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |