Will Sheldon Whitehouse (D) win the 2024 Rhode Island Senate seat?
  • 279
  • 51
  • $31,729
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sheldon Whitehouse (D) wins the 2024 Rhode Island Senate seat by being officially certified as the winner, as determined by local, state, and federal governments. The resolution criteria is the outcome of the election as decided by major news organizations such as the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, with a tiebreaker to official certification if all three sources haven't called for the same candidate. If Sheldon Whitehouse switches party affiliations after the beginning of Election Day, local time, his switch will not affect the outcome. The market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5. If a Democrat wins the popular vote on Election Day but is replaced by a Republican due to intervening events, the market will still resolve in favor of the Democratic candidate.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0005
-0.0236
0.9997
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0017
-0.0420
0.9991
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0017
-0.0421
0.9991
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0009
-0.0311
0.9995
Relative Score
C+
-0.002
+0.008
+0.002
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0042
-0.0672
0.9976
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0033
-0.0588
0.9982
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0141
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0156
0.9999
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.008
-0.002
  • Overall
  • 279
  • 51
  • $31,729
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0024
-0.0454
0.9987
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0025
-0.0504
0.9986
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0009
-0.0281
0.9995
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0233
0.9997

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