Will Republicans win control of the US Senate in 2024?
  • 1,163
  • 1,592
  • $4,344,493
If Republicans win control of the Senate in 2024, victory will be determined by the party identification of the President pro tempore of the Senate on February 1, 2025. The outcome after the November 5, 2024, elections is decided by the party with the most seats, or if tied and no Vice President, the party affiliation of the Majority Leader following their selection, unless they do not caucus with either party. The resolution criteria for one market states that Democrats win control if they have more than half or half of voting Senate members and a Democrat Vice President, while Republicans win under similar conditions. Ambiguous outcomes are resolved by credible reporting, final election authority certification, or other official determinations. If the Majority Leader does not caucus with either party, the market resolves 50-50.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityOct2021Jan2022AprJulOctJan2023AprJulOctJan2024AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0676
-0.3011
0.9435
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0082
-0.0949
0.9951
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0703
-0.3082
0.9406
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0257
-0.1746
0.9823
Relative Score
B
-0.006
+0.018
+0.005
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0650
-0.2942
0.9462
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0538
-0.2638
0.9573
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0736
-0.3165
0.9372
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0280
-0.1830
0.9804
Relative Score
C
+0.003
-0.009
-0.002
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1311
-0.4495
0.8697
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1161
-0.4166
0.8884
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0919
-0.3612
0.9170
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0580
-0.2755
0.9532
Relative Score
C
+0.004
-0.013
-0.004
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0915
-0.3603
0.9174
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0874
-0.3504
0.9221
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0743
-0.3181
0.9365
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0289
-0.1863
0.9797
Relative Score
C+
-0.002
+0.006
+0.001
  • Overall
  • 1,163
  • 1,592
  • $4,344,493
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0888
-0.3513
0.9192
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0664
-0.2814
0.9407
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0775
-0.3260
0.9328
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0351
-0.2049
0.9739

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