Will Rick Scott (R) win the 2024 Florida Senate seat?
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  • 249
  • $792,729
If Rick Scott or another representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Florida for the term beginning in 2025, then the outcome is considered favorable. The resolution criteria are satisfied if either the local, state, and federal governments determine that Party A's candidate X won the popular vote, or if major news organizations call the race for Party A before Election Day, November 5. In the event of a party switch by candidate X after the start of Election Day, the outcome is unaffected. The outcome depends on whether the winning candidate in the Florida US Senate election is a Republican, with the resolution source being the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0089
-0.0989
0.9946
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0023
-0.0489
0.9987
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0197
-0.1514
0.9869
7 Days Before Close
C+
0.0060
-0.0809
0.9965
Relative Score
C+
-0.002
+0.008
+0.001
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0093
-0.1014
0.9944
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0202
-0.1534
0.9865
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0405
-0.2248
0.9697
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0025
-0.0513
0.9986
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.003
-0.001
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0132
-0.1222
0.9917
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0185
-0.1463
0.9878
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0324
-0.1985
0.9767
7 Days Before Close
C+
0.0064
-0.0834
0.9962
Relative Score
C+
-0.000
-0.000
+0.000
  • Overall
  • 279
  • 249
  • $792,729
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0105
-0.1075
0.9936
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0137
-0.1162
0.9910
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0309
-0.1916
0.9778
7 Days Before Close
B-
0.0050
-0.0718
0.9971

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