Will Pete Ricketts (R) win the 2024 Nebraska Special Election Senate seat?
  • 279
  • 26
  • $20,352
This market covers the special senate Senate race in Nebraska to complete the term of Ben Sasse; the winner will be a Republican if Pete Ricketts or another representative of the party wins. The outcome is determined by the local, state, and federal governments' results. If the major news organizations call the race for the Republican candidate before Election Day, November 5, the market may resolve early. The market's resolution source includes the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; if all three sources haven't called the race for the same candidate, it will resolve based on the official certification. The switch of a candidate from one party to another after the beginning of Election Day will not affect the outcome if it occurs after that time.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Time-Weighted Average
A+
0.0001
-0.0111
0.9999
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0016
-0.0408
0.9991
Relative Score
C+
-0.000
+0.007
+0.000
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0008
-0.0286
0.9996
Time-Weighted Average
A+
0.0008
-0.0288
0.9996
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0008
-0.0286
0.9996
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0008
-0.0286
0.9996
Relative Score
C
+0.000
-0.000
-0.000
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0008
-0.0284
0.9996
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0009
-0.0306
0.9995
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0011
-0.0330
0.9994
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0011
-0.0330
0.9994
Relative Score
C
+0.000
-0.001
-0.000
  • Overall
  • 279
  • 26
  • $20,352
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0006
-0.0224
0.9997
Time-Weighted Average
A+
0.0006
-0.0235
0.9997
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0239
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0012
-0.0342
0.9994

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