Will a Republican win the Pennsylvania Presidential Election?
  • 309
  • 5,917
  • $21,654,524
If a Republican presidential candidate wins the popular vote in Pennsylvania in the 2024 US presidential election, then "Yes" resolves to Yes. The market will also resolve to Yes if a Republican candidate is officially certified as the winner after all three specified sources have called the race for the same candidate. The resolution source is ultimately based on official certification if the three sources haven't agreed on a winner by that point. A party is represented in this context when their nominee is or has a ballot-listed party preference. This market resolves once all three sources agree on a winner, with the AP and Fox News sources taking precedence over NBC.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityFeb2024MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 92
  • $9,124,687

Will the Republican party win Pennsylvania in the presidential election? | :: or another Republican

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1719
-0.5355
0.8160
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0254
-0.1736
0.9825
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.2472
-0.6875
0.7111
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1756
-0.5430
0.8111
Relative Score
B-
-0.004
+0.011
+0.004
  • Manifold
  • 309
  • 797
  • $10,155

Which party will win the US Presidency in Pennsylvania? | Republican Party

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2050
-0.6029
0.7704
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2970
-0.7875
0.6408
30 Days Before Close
F
0.2745
-0.7421
0.6725
7 Days Before Close
F
0.2563
-0.7057
0.6983
Relative Score
D
+0.015
-0.031
-0.022
  • Polymarket
  • 245
  • 5,120
  • $12,519,682

Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1892
-0.5709
0.7924
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2492
-0.6916
0.7082
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1980
-0.5888
0.7802
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1406
-0.4700
0.8575
Relative Score
B+
-0.010
+0.020
+0.014
  • Overall
  • 309
  • 5,917
  • $21,654,524
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1887
-0.5698
0.7929
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1906
-0.5509
0.7772
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.2399
-0.6728
0.7213
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1908
-0.5729
0.7889

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