Will a Republican win the North Carolina Presidential Election?
  • 309
  • 5,377
  • $12,435,858
If a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in North Carolina in the 2024 US presidential election, then the outcome is resolved to "Yes". A candidate shall be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee or have an identifiable party preference. The market resolution criteria include the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC calling the race for the same candidate, or official certification if these sources haven't made a decision. Alternatively, resolving to "No" if a Republican does not win the popular vote in North Carolina in the 2024 US presidential election.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityFeb2024MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 92
  • $6,633,779

Will the Republican party win North Carolina in the presidential election? | :: or another Republican

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0968
-0.3727
0.9114
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0158
-0.1342
0.9898
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1469
-0.4833
0.8493
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0680
-0.3022
0.9430
Relative Score
B
-0.004
+0.012
+0.004
  • Manifold
  • 309
  • 395
  • $5,328

Which party will win the US Presidency in North Carolina? | Republican Party

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0497
-0.2523
0.9612
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0894
-0.3554
0.9198
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.2012
-0.5953
0.7757
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0939
-0.3658
0.9147
Relative Score
C
+0.002
+0.000
-0.004
  • Polymarket
  • 244
  • 4,982
  • $5,796,751

Will a Republican win North Carolina Presidential Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0462
-0.2421
0.9645
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0959
-0.3707
0.9124
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1560
-0.5025
0.8373
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0756
-0.3216
0.9350
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.007
-0.000
  • Overall
  • 309
  • 5,377
  • $12,435,858
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0642
-0.2890
0.9457
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0670
-0.2867
0.9407
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1681
-0.5270
0.8208
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0792
-0.3299
0.9309

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