Will a Republican win the Wisconsin Presidential Election?
  • 309
  • 2,956
  • $8,252,186
This market resolves to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Wisconsin in the 2024 US presidential election or if another representative of the Republican party is declared the winner. It also includes a secondary resolution mechanism where a candidate's party affiliation is determined by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The market's outcome is confirmed once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If the official certification confirms a Republican victory in the state, it will be deemed a win as well. A primary condition is that there must be an actual election held to determine the winner; otherwise, the market will not resolve.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityFeb2024MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2129
-0.6188
0.7594
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0299
-0.1898
0.9789
30 Days Before Close
F
0.3034
-0.8003
0.6320
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.2376
-0.6684
0.7246
Relative Score
B-
-0.003
+0.008
+0.003
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2530
-0.6991
0.7029
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2835
-0.7603
0.6598
30 Days Before Close
F
0.3115
-0.8166
0.6208
7 Days Before Close
F
0.2807
-0.7546
0.6638
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.005
-0.003
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1892
-0.5709
0.7924
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2701
-0.7334
0.6787
30 Days Before Close
F
0.2756
-0.7444
0.6709
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1640
-0.5192
0.8267
Relative Score
C
+0.003
-0.007
-0.005
  • Overall
  • 309
  • 2,956
  • $8,252,186
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2184
-0.6296
0.7516
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1945
-0.5612
0.7724
30 Days Before Close
F
0.2968
-0.7871
0.6412
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.2274
-0.6474
0.7384

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