Will a Republican win the Arizona Presidential Election?
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A Republican wins Arizona's presidential election if their candidate either receives the most popular votes or is the declared winner as per the AP's call, Fox News' call, NBC's call, or official certification. The resolution criteria may depend on which source calls the race for the same candidate first. If a Republican candidate is nominated by the party and has a ballot-listed or identifiable party preference, they are considered to represent the party in this market. The outcome of this election determines whether this market resolves to "Yes" or "No". This market will resolve after all three mentioned sources have called the race for the same candidate.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityFeb2024MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0822
-0.3378
0.9279
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0123
-0.1174
0.9923
30 Days Before Close
D
0.1090
-0.4008
0.8969
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0602
-0.2816
0.9510
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.002
+0.001
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1829
-0.5580
0.8011
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1989
-0.5905
0.7790
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1955
-0.5838
0.7836
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0834
-0.3409
0.9265
Relative Score
D+
+0.013
-0.028
-0.017
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0870
-0.3496
0.9225
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1569
-0.5043
0.8362
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1133
-0.4105
0.8917
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0625
-0.2877
0.9487
Relative Score
B+
-0.009
+0.019
+0.012
  • Overall
  • 309
  • 3,899
  • $8,836,074
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1174
-0.4151
0.8838
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1227
-0.4040
0.8692
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1393
-0.4650
0.8574
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0687
-0.3034
0.9420

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