Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D | 0.0822 | -0.3378 | 0.9279 |
Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0123 | -0.1174 | 0.9923 |
30 Days Before Close | D | 0.1090 | -0.4008 | 0.8969 |
7 Days Before Close | D | 0.0602 | -0.2816 | 0.9510 |
Relative Score | C+ | -0.001 | +0.002 | +0.001 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.1829 | -0.5580 | 0.8011 |
Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.1989 | -0.5905 | 0.7790 |
30 Days Before Close | D- | 0.1955 | -0.5838 | 0.7836 |
7 Days Before Close | D | 0.0834 | -0.3409 | 0.9265 |
Relative Score | D+ | +0.013 | -0.028 | -0.017 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D | 0.0870 | -0.3496 | 0.9225 |
Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.1569 | -0.5043 | 0.8362 |
30 Days Before Close | D- | 0.1133 | -0.4105 | 0.8917 |
7 Days Before Close | D | 0.0625 | -0.2877 | 0.9487 |
Relative Score | B+ | -0.009 | +0.019 | +0.012 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.1174 | -0.4151 | 0.8838 |
Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.1227 | -0.4040 | 0.8692 |
30 Days Before Close | D- | 0.1393 | -0.4650 | 0.8574 |
7 Days Before Close | D | 0.0687 | -0.3034 | 0.9420 |
Kalshi | B- | -0.004 |
Manifold | D | +0.015 |
Polymarket | B+ | -0.010 |
Kalshi | C | +0.002 |
Manifold | D- | +0.032 |
Metaculus | C | +0.003 |
Polymarket | A | -0.025 |
Kalshi | C | +0.004 |
Manifold | C- | +0.007 |
Polymarket | B- | -0.003 |
Kalshi | C+ | -0.000 |
Manifold | D | +0.019 |
Polymarket | B+ | -0.009 |
Kalshi | C | +0.003 |
Manifold | C | +0.003 |
Polymarket | B- | -0.002 |
Kalshi | B- | -0.003 |
Manifold | C | +0.002 |
Polymarket | C | +0.003 |