Will Ruben Gallego (D) win the 2024 Arizona Senate seat?
  • 361
  • 2,895
  • $19,629,808
This market resolves to "Yes" if Ruben Gallego wins the 2024 Arizona Senate election, and will resolve to "No" otherwise. The resolution criteria include a credible source calling the race for him, with the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC being the primary sources. If there is a tie or conflicting reports, the market will wait for official certification before resolving.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2024AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 89
  • $12,874,654

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Arizona? | :: or another Democrat

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0466
-0.2432
0.9641
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0067
-0.0855
0.9960
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0189
-0.1480
0.9875
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0887
-0.3535
0.9206
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.006
-0.002
  • Manifold
  • 365
  • 46
  • $520

Will Ruben Gallego (D) win the 2024 Arizona Senate election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1923
-0.5771
0.7882
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1332
-0.4542
0.8670
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0289
-0.1863
0.9797
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0306
-0.1922
0.9783
Relative Score
D-
+0.032
-0.068
-0.042
  • Metaculus
  • 225
  • 27

Who will win the 2024 Senate election in Arizona? | Ruben Gallego (D)

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1306
-0.4484
0.8703
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0979
-0.3753
0.9101
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0595
-0.2796
0.9517
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0889
-0.3541
0.9204
Relative Score
C
+0.003
-0.010
-0.003
  • Polymarket
  • 223
  • 2,822
  • $6,754,634

Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0961
-0.3711
0.9122
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0620
-0.2862
0.9492
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0205
-0.1547
0.9863
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0702
-0.3079
0.9407
Relative Score
A
-0.025
+0.064
+0.027
  • Overall
  • 361
  • 2,895
  • $19,629,808
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1164
-0.4100
0.8837
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0750
-0.3003
0.9306
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0320
-0.1922
0.9763
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0696
-0.3019
0.9400

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