Will Bernie Sanders (D) win the 2024 Vermont Senate seat?
  • 583
  • 102
  • $46,827
This market predicts whether Bernie Sanders (D) will win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Vermont, resolving to "Yes" if a Democrat wins the election and "No" otherwise. The outcome is determined by the winner of the Vermont US Senate election, with a candidate considered a Democrat if they are the nominee or have an identifiable party preference. The market's resolution source includes the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, which will call the race for the same candidate before resolving the market. In the absence of all three sources agreeing on a winner, the official certification will be used to determine the outcome.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJul2023OctJan2024AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3855
-0.9700
0.5211
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0353
-0.2080
0.9743
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0016
-0.0408
0.9991
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0016
-0.0408
0.9991
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.002
+0.001
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C+
0.0072
-0.0888
0.9957
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0034
-0.0598
0.9981
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0085
1.0000
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0121
0.9999
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.002
-0.001
  • Overall
  • 583
  • 102
  • $46,827
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1964
-0.5294
0.7584
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0193
-0.1339
0.9862
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0008
-0.0247
0.9995
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0009
-0.0264
0.9995

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