Will Elizabeth Warren (D) win the 2024 Massachusetts Senate seat?
  • 252
  • 111
  • $160,915
Elizabeth Warren's candidacy for the 2024 Massachusetts Senate seat is up for prediction. The resolution criteria are as follows: if she wins the election and assumes office, the outcome is YES; otherwise, it's NO. To determine the winner, multiple news sources - Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC - will be consulted. If all three sources agree on a candidate, their call is final; otherwise, the official certification of the race decides the outcome. The market resolves once one of these conditions is met, providing an early indication of Warren's chances in the election.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0037
-0.0632
0.9979
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0035
-0.0609
0.9980
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0037
-0.0632
0.9979
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0037
-0.0632
0.9979
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
-0.000
+0.001
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0036
-0.0619
0.9980
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0033
-0.0594
0.9981
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0233
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0274
0.9996
Relative Score
C
+0.001
+0.000
-0.001
  • Overall
  • 252
  • 111
  • $160,915
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0037
-0.0625
0.9979
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0034
-0.0602
0.9981
30 Days Before Close
A-
0.0021
-0.0432
0.9988
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0022
-0.0453
0.9987

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