Will Zach Nunn (R) win Iowa's 3rd congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 229
  • 75
  • $36,218
This market resolves to "Yes" if the Republican Party member sworn in for IA-3 for the term beginning in 2025 holds their seat. The balance of power between Republicans and Democrats is currently 217 to 214, with five vacancies. If Zach Nunn wins the election, the market will resolve to "Yes". A margin of more than 2 points in favor of Zach Nunn would have increased his chances of winning the election. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024MayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 65
  • $18,021

Will Republican win the House race for IA-3? | :: Or another Republican

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1584
-0.5074
0.8342
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0030
-0.0559
0.9984
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Relative Score
B
-0.006
+0.026
+0.004
  • Manifold
  • 229
  • 19
  • $1,105

2024 House Races: Which congressional elections will be won by a Republican? [10K Subsidy] | IA-03 Zach Nunn (R)

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0697
-0.3065
0.9413
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0738
-0.3169
0.9370
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1764
-0.5447
0.8099
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0770
-0.3249
0.9336
Relative Score
B+
-0.009
+0.019
+0.013
  • Polymarket
  • 50
  • 56
  • $17,092

IA-03 election: Baccam (D) vs. Nunn (R) | Baccam | Inverted

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2155
-0.6239
0.7558
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1582
-0.5070
0.8345
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.2078
-0.6085
0.7666
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0650
-0.2944
0.9461
Relative Score
D+
+0.011
-0.023
-0.015
  • Overall
  • 229
  • 75
  • $36,218
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1478
-0.4793
0.8438
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0783
-0.2933
0.9233
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1282
-0.3911
0.8588
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0474
-0.2098
0.9599

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