Will Ricardo Nunes win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?
  • 517
  • 1,545
  • $732,144
This market predicts whether Ricardo Nunes will win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election. It resolves to "Yes" if Nunes wins the election outright on October 6, but also includes scenarios where a runoff is triggered and Nunes is no longer considered the top contender, or if the election is delayed beyond December 31, 2024 ET. The resolution source will be official information from the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) or related arbitration processes. The market's outcome will depend on Nunes' performance in the election, as well as any changes to the electoral process that might affect his chances. If none of these conditions are met by December 31, 2024 ET, the market will resolve to "No".

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJul2023OctJan2024AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2177
-0.6284
0.7527
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2650
-0.7232
0.6858
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1273
-0.4413
0.8745
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.0204
-0.1541
0.9864
Relative Score
C-
+0.007
-0.025
-0.009
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1332
-0.4541
0.8670
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1108
-0.4048
0.8948
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1332
-0.4541
0.8670
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0207
0.9998
Relative Score
B
-0.007
+0.025
+0.009
  • Overall
  • 517
  • 1,545
  • $732,144
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1755
-0.5413
0.8098
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1879
-0.5640
0.7903
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1303
-0.4477
0.8707
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0104
-0.0874
0.9931

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