Will Pete Hegseth be confirmed as Trump's first Defense Secretary?
  • 73
  • 2,651
  • $11,798,041
If Pete Hegseth is confirmed by the Senate to serve as Secretary of Defense, or receives a recess appointment that counts towards confirmation, then he will have been Trump's first Defense Secretary. The markets resolve based on whether this occurs before December 31, 2026, with varying close dates and criteria for counting. If Hegseth's nomination is formally withdrawn or rejected by the Senate, the market resolves to "No". A recess appointment without Senate confirmation does not count towards a resolution of "Yes". Market resolutions are ultimately based on information from the U.S. Senate and credible reporting.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability17Nov241Dec81522295Jan1219

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 74
  • $8,545,836

Will Pete Hegseth be confirmed as Secretary of Defense by Dec 31, 2026? | Pete Hegseth

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0841
-0.3425
0.9258
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0910
-0.3592
0.9180
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0784
-0.3285
0.9320
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
Relative Score
C
+0.000
+0.000
-0.000
  • Manifold
  • 74
  • 134
  • $947

Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's first Defense Secretary?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0541
-0.2647
0.9570
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0860
-0.3471
0.9236
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0833
-0.3406
0.9266
7 Days Before Close
C+
0.0058
-0.0789
0.9966
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.000
-0.004
  • Polymarket
  • 73
  • 2,517
  • $3,251,258

Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.1056
-0.3930
0.9010
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0906
-0.3582
0.9184
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0650
-0.2944
0.9461
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0032
-0.0582
0.9982
Relative Score
B-
-0.004
+0.010
+0.005
  • Overall
  • 73
  • 2,651
  • $11,798,041
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0813
-0.3334
0.9279
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0892
-0.3548
0.9200
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0756
-0.3212
0.9349
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0031
-0.0524
0.9982

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