Will Marco Rubio be Trump's Secretary of State?
  • 189
  • 526
  • $1,797,279
Marco Rubio is expected to become the first Secretary of State confirmed under Donald Trump's administration if he wins the 2024 presidential election. The resolution criteria vary depending on the platform: one requires confirmation by December 31, 2026, while another resolves based on the timing and official information from the US government. If Trump nominates Marco Rubio before June 30, 2025, the market will resolve to "Yes", but if he nominates someone else first, it will immediately resolve to "No". The markets do not resolve in the event of a cancelled election or until a nomination is made. Official information from the US government and credible reporting are considered primary sources for resolution.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityAug2024SepOctNovDecJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 77
  • $1,159,407

Will Marco Rubio be confirmed as Secretary of State by Dec 31, 2026? | Marco Rubio

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0025
-0.0513
0.9986
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0083
-0.0953
0.9950
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0025
-0.0513
0.9986
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
Relative Score
A-
-0.011
+0.018
+0.013
  • Manifold
  • 152
  • 81
  • $3,380

Who will be Trump's Secretary of State? | Marco Rubio (VP Finalist)

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.8807
-2.7877
0.0655
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.5422
-1.3331
0.3371
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0094
1.0000
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0156
0.9999
Relative Score
F
+0.037
-0.130
-0.032
  • Polymarket
  • 8
  • 445
  • $634,492

Will Trump nominate Marco Rubio for Secretary of State?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4422
-1.0936
0.4499
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2517
-0.6965
0.7047
7 Days Before Close
F
0.5041
-1.2379
0.3781
Relative Score
A-
-0.014
+0.033
+0.016
  • Overall
  • 189
  • 526
  • $1,797,279
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4418
-1.3109
0.5047
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2674
-0.7083
0.6790
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0013
-0.0304
0.9993
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1682
-0.4245
0.7926

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