Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.8281 | -2.4079 | 0.0984 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.6679 | -1.6998 | 0.2182 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.8281 | -2.4079 | 0.0984 |
7 Days Before Close | F | 0.4761 | -1.1712 | 0.4098 |
Relative Score | C- | +0.008 | -0.031 | -0.006 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.7832 | -2.1628 | 0.1289 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.6289 | -1.5751 | 0.2526 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.8930 | -2.9004 | 0.0581 |
7 Days Before Close | F | 0.5256 | -1.2910 | 0.3547 |
Relative Score | B | -0.008 | +0.031 | +0.006 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.8057 | -2.2854 | 0.1136 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.6484 | -1.6374 | 0.2354 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.8606 | -2.6542 | 0.0783 |
7 Days Before Close | F | 0.5009 | -1.2311 | 0.3822 |
Kalshi | C+ | -0.001 |
Manifold | C | +0.004 |
Metaculus | A | -0.020 |
Polymarket | C | +0.005 |
Kalshi | A | -0.032 |
Manifold | D- | +0.032 |
Polymarket | C | +0.004 |
Kalshi | C | +0.000 |
Manifold | C | +0.002 |
Polymarket | B- | -0.004 |
Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
Manifold | A | -0.021 |
Polymarket | C- | +0.006 |
Kalshi | A- | -0.011 |
Manifold | F | +0.037 |
Polymarket | A- | -0.014 |