Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration?
  • 91
  • 1,982
  • $2,622,897
If Elon Musk is formally appointed or nominated to a role within the Trump Administration before May 1, 2025, including Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels, then he will be a member of the administration. The market resolves to "Yes" if this condition is met. Nominations qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. A role that does not require Senate confirmation, such as a non-governmental organization contracted by the Trump Administration, is not sufficient on its own to resolve the question. The primary resolution source is official government information, with credible reporting also considered in cases of ambiguity.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability10Nov17241Dec81522295Jan1219262Feb

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.8281
-2.4079
0.0984
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.6679
-1.6998
0.2182
30 Days Before Close
F
0.8281
-2.4079
0.0984
7 Days Before Close
F
0.4761
-1.1712
0.4098
Relative Score
C-
+0.008
-0.031
-0.006
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.7832
-2.1628
0.1289
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.6289
-1.5751
0.2526
30 Days Before Close
F
0.8930
-2.9004
0.0581
7 Days Before Close
F
0.5256
-1.2910
0.3547
Relative Score
B
-0.008
+0.031
+0.006
  • Overall
  • 91
  • 1,982
  • $2,622,897
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.8057
-2.2854
0.1136
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.6484
-1.6374
0.2354
30 Days Before Close
F
0.8606
-2.6542
0.0783
7 Days Before Close
F
0.5009
-1.2311
0.3822

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