| Platform | Markets | Midpoint Brier | Relative Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 22 | F | 0.2996 | A- | -0.013 |
| Manifold | 30 | D- | 0.2325 | D | +0.018 |
| Metaculus | 8 | D- | 0.2018 | F | +0.051 |
| Polymarket | 26 | D- | 0.1734 | B | -0.008 |
| Overall | 86 | D- | 0.2290 | C- | 0.0052 |
Calibration plot from all resolved questions, market probability at midpoint versus average resolution value. n=18,482 markets
Source: brier.fyi
Brier scores from all resolved questions, using probability at market midpoint. Lower scores are better. n=18,482 markets
Source: brier.fyi
| Kalshi | A | -0.032 |
| Manifold | D- | +0.032 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.004 |
| Kalshi | B- | -0.002 |
| Manifold | B | -0.005 |
| Metaculus | F | +0.195 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.003 |
| Kalshi | S | -0.177 |
| Manifold | F | +0.159 |
| Metaculus | F | +0.169 |
| Polymarket | A- | -0.013 |