Will Anora win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?
  • 130
  • 2,738
  • $1,976,551
If Anora wins Best Picture at the 97th Academy Awards, the market resolves to Yes, based on official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS. The resolution criteria include checking for an official announcement by January 23, with no winner declared by June 30, 2025, or in case of a tie, resolving in favor of the nominated film that comes first alphabetically. Markets will resolve immediately to "No" if Anora is not officially nominated for Best Picture at any point prior to the nominees' announcement. The primary resolution source is official Academy Awards and AMPAS data, with consensus from credible reporting also considered. The 97th Academy Awards are expected to take place on March 2, 2025.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityNov2024DecJan2025FebMar

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 131
  • $1,000,203

Will Anora win Best Picture at the Oscars? | Anora

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2916
-0.7765
0.6485
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4189
-1.0420
0.4785
30 Days Before Close
F
0.6889
-1.7720
0.2007
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1296
-0.4463
0.8716
Relative Score
B-
-0.002
+0.007
+0.002
  • Manifold
  • 40
  • 26
  • $19,880

What movie will win Best Picture? 🏆🎬 2025 Oscars | Anora

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1528
-0.4957
0.8416
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3046
-0.8028
0.6303
30 Days Before Close
F
0.7039
-1.8262
0.1885
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0866
-0.3486
0.9229
Relative Score
B
-0.005
+0.017
+0.003
  • Metaculus
  • 1
  • 22

Which movie will win the 2025 Oscar for Best Picture? | Anora

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2995
-0.7924
0.6374
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3487
-0.8929
0.5698
Relative Score
F
+0.195
-0.395
-0.270
  • Polymarket
  • 41
  • 2,690
  • $956,469

Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1444
-0.4780
0.8526
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3183
-0.8305
0.6113
30 Days Before Close
F
0.7140
-1.8643
0.1804
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0400
-0.2231
0.9701
Relative Score
C
+0.003
-0.013
-0.002
  • Overall
  • 130
  • 2,738
  • $1,976,551
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2221
-0.6357
0.7450
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3476
-0.8921
0.5725
30 Days Before Close
F
0.7023
-1.8208
0.1899
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0854
-0.3393
0.9216

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