Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D | 0.1024 | -0.3857 | 0.9048 |
Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.1476 | -0.4848 | 0.8484 |
30 Days Before Close | D | 0.0576 | -0.2744 | 0.9536 |
7 Days Before Close | D+ | 0.0256 | -0.1744 | 0.9823 |
Relative Score | B+ | -0.010 | +0.024 | +0.010 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D+ | 0.0361 | -0.2107 | 0.9736 |
Time-Weighted Average | D+ | 0.0481 | -0.2477 | 0.9627 |
30 Days Before Close | D | 0.0701 | -0.3075 | 0.9409 |
7 Days Before Close | C+ | 0.0059 | -0.0800 | 0.9965 |
Relative Score | C- | +0.010 | -0.024 | -0.010 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D | 0.0693 | -0.2982 | 0.9392 |
Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.0979 | -0.3662 | 0.9056 |
30 Days Before Close | D | 0.0638 | -0.2910 | 0.9472 |
7 Days Before Close | C- | 0.0158 | -0.1272 | 0.9894 |
Kalshi | B- | -0.002 |
Manifold | B | -0.005 |
Metaculus | F | +0.195 |
Polymarket | C | +0.003 |
Kalshi | A+ | -0.049 |
Manifold | F | +0.063 |
Metaculus | F | +0.046 |
Polymarket | A+ | -0.044 |