Will Conclave win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?
  • 130
  • 375
  • $123,498
These markets are focused on predicting whether Conclave will win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 97th Academy Awards. The resolution criteria vary across platforms, but most resolve to "Yes" if Conclave has won the award, with some specifying that it must be officially nominated and announced as a nominee. In case of a tie or no winner declared by June 30, 2025, resolutions may favor the nominated film whose title comes first alphabetically. The primary sources for resolution will be official Academy Awards information and data from their website, although credible reporting consensus may also be considered. Markets are expected to close before the ceremony.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityNov2024DecJan2025FebMar

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1444
-0.4780
0.8526
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1390
-0.4665
0.8596
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0484
-0.2485
0.9624
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0121
-0.1165
0.9924
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.002
+0.000
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0146
-0.1289
0.9907
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0278
-0.1824
0.9806
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0477
-0.2466
0.9631
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0125
-0.1184
0.9922
Relative Score
C
+0.003
-0.012
-0.002
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0156
-0.1335
0.9899
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0235
-0.1663
0.9840
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0729
-0.3147
0.9379
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0090
-0.0998
0.9945
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.002
-0.002
  • Overall
  • 130
  • 375
  • $123,498
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0582
-0.2468
0.9444
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0634
-0.2717
0.9414
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0563
-0.2699
0.9545
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0112
-0.1116
0.9931

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