Will Anora win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars? | Anora
  • 130
  • 1,454
  • $274,036
The 97th Academy Awards, scheduled for March 2, 2025, will honor movies released in 2024. If Anora wins Best Original Screenplay at these awards, the market resolves to Yes. The nominees are announced on January 23, and the primary resolution source is official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS. In case of a tie or no winner declared by June 30, 2025, or in the event that Anora is not officially nominated when the nominees are announced, the market will resolve to No. The market's resolution criteria rely on official data from the Academy website and live broadcast of the award ceremony.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityNov2024DecJan2025FebMar

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 131
  • $105,060

Will Anora win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars? | Anora

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1600
-0.5108
0.8321
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1918
-0.5761
0.7888
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0900
-0.3567
0.9191
7 Days Before Close
D
0.1089
-0.4005
0.8971
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.003
-0.002
  • Manifold
  • 39
  • 24
  • $47

Which film will win Best Original Screenplay? (2025 Oscars) | Anora

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1156
-0.4155
0.8890
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.1002
-0.3806
0.9074
30 Days Before Close
D
0.1009
-0.3822
0.9066
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0895
-0.3555
0.9197
Relative Score
B
-0.007
+0.016
+0.008
  • Polymarket
  • 38
  • 1,430
  • $168,929

Will "Anora" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0992
-0.3783
0.9085
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.1002
-0.3805
0.9075
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0756
-0.3216
0.9350
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1190
-0.4231
0.8848
Relative Score
B
-0.004
+0.011
+0.005
  • Overall
  • 130
  • 1,454
  • $274,036
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1249
-0.4349
0.8765
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1307
-0.4457
0.8679
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0888
-0.3535
0.9203
7 Days Before Close
D
0.1058
-0.3930
0.9005

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