Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?
  • 130
  • 529
  • $671,269
If Mikey Madison is awarded Best Actress at the 97th Academy Awards on March 2, 2025, this outcome will result in a "Yes". The market takes into account official announcements from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) and their website, as well as information from credible reporting during the award ceremony. If Mikey Madison is not officially nominated for Best Actress by January 23, 2025, the market will resolve to "No". In the event of a tie or no winner declared by June 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET, the market will favor the nominated actress with the last name coming first alphabetically. The outcome is determined by official information and credible reporting from reputable sources.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityNov2024DecJan2025FebMar

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 131
  • $377,892

Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the Oscars? | Mikey Madison:: Anora

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1764
-0.5447
0.8099
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3099
-0.8135
0.6229
30 Days Before Close
F
0.5625
-1.3863
0.3162
7 Days Before Close
F
0.5041
-1.2379
0.3781
Relative Score
A
-0.024
+0.067
+0.025
  • Manifold
  • 39
  • 75
  • $355

Who will win Best Actress? (2025 Oscars) | Mikey Madison - Anora

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.6445
-1.6235
0.2386
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.5912
-1.4649
0.2878
30 Days Before Close
F
0.6268
-1.5687
0.2545
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3310
-0.8564
0.5939
Relative Score
F
+0.042
-0.108
-0.046
  • Polymarket
  • 41
  • 454
  • $293,022

Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.6400
-1.6094
0.2425
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.5366
-1.3186
0.3430
30 Days Before Close
F
0.5700
-1.4065
0.3087
7 Days Before Close
F
0.2809
-0.7550
0.6635
Relative Score
C+
-0.000
-0.001
+0.001
  • Overall
  • 130
  • 529
  • $671,269
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4870
-1.2592
0.4303
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4792
-1.1990
0.4179
30 Days Before Close
F
0.5864
-1.4538
0.2931
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3720
-0.9498
0.5452

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