Will Adrien Brody win Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars?
  • 130
  • 1,027
  • $547,055
Adrien Brody is expected to win Best Actor at the 97th Academy Awards, scheduled for March 2, 2025. The event will honor movies released in 2024, and nominees are set to be announced on January 23. If an actor is nominated, the winner will determine the market's resolution, with "No" resolving if a nominee isn't declared before the announcement. A tie or no winner by June 30, 2025, will also resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose last name comes first alphabetically. Official Academy Awards and AMPAS information, as well as credible reporting, will be primary sources for market resolution.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityNov2024DecJan2025FebMar

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 131
  • $345,460

Will Adrien Brody win Best Actor at the Oscars? | Adrien Brody:: The Brutalist

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2704
-0.7340
0.6783
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2372
-0.6675
0.7252
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.2209
-0.6349
0.7482
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.2401
-0.6733
0.7211
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.004
-0.003
  • Manifold
  • 39
  • 69
  • $178

Who will win Best Actor? (2025 Oscars) | Adrien Brody - The Brutalist

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1483
-0.4864
0.8475
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1401
-0.4689
0.8582
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1710
-0.5337
0.8172
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0080
-0.0938
0.9952
Relative Score
C
+0.005
-0.009
-0.007
  • Polymarket
  • 41
  • 958
  • $201,416

Will Adrien Brody win Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1444
-0.4780
0.8526
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1402
-0.4692
0.8580
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1640
-0.5192
0.8267
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0702
-0.3079
0.9407
Relative Score
C
+0.000
-0.001
-0.000
  • Overall
  • 130
  • 1,027
  • $547,055
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1877
-0.5661
0.7928
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1725
-0.5352
0.8138
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1853
-0.5626
0.7974
7 Days Before Close
D
0.1061
-0.3584
0.8857

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