Will Sean Baker win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars?
  • 128
  • 934
  • $388,374
Sean Baker is predicted to win Best Director at the 97th Academy Awards held on March 2, 2025. The markets resolve based on official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS. If Sean Baker is not nominated for Best Director when the nominees are announced in January 2025, he will be immediately ruled out of winning. In case no winner is declared by June 30, 2025, or in a tie, the market resolves to the nominated director whose last name comes first alphabetically. The primary resolution source is official Academy Awards data and information from their website.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityNov2024DecJan2025FebMar

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 129
  • $201,961

Will Sean Baker win Best Director at the Oscars? | Sean Baker:: Anora

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4624
-1.1394
0.4258
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4387
-1.0857
0.4542
30 Days Before Close
F
0.7921
-2.2073
0.1227
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1681
-0.5276
0.8212
Relative Score
A
-0.019
+0.075
+0.017
  • Manifold
  • 39
  • 30
  • $50

Who will win Best Director? (2025 Oscars) | Sean Baker - Anora

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2809
-0.7550
0.6635
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3979
-0.9965
0.5051
30 Days Before Close
F
0.7744
-2.1203
0.1351
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.2004
-0.5935
0.7769
Relative Score
C-
+0.009
-0.029
-0.010
  • Polymarket
  • 38
  • 904
  • $186,363

Will Sean Baker win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "Anora"?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2209
-0.6349
0.7482
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3824
-0.9634
0.5251
30 Days Before Close
F
0.8464
-2.5257
0.0866
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1560
-0.5025
0.8373
Relative Score
D+
+0.014
-0.067
-0.012
  • Overall
  • 128
  • 934
  • $388,374
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3214
-0.8431
0.6125
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4063
-1.0152
0.4948
30 Days Before Close
F
0.8043
-2.2844
0.1148
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1748
-0.5412
0.8118

Similar Questions

Will Anora win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?
  • 2,738
  • $1,976,551
Kalshi
B-
-0.002
Manifold
B
-0.005
Metaculus
F
+0.195
Polymarket
C
+0.003
Will Adrien Brody win Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars?
  • 1,027
  • $547,055
Kalshi
C
+0.002
Manifold
C
+0.005
Polymarket
C
+0.000
Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?
  • 529
  • $671,269
Kalshi
A
-0.024
Manifold
F
+0.042
Polymarket
C+
-0.000
Will Kieran Culkin win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?
  • 315
  • $425,865
Kalshi
C-
+0.005
Manifold
C
+0.000
Polymarket
C+
-0.002
Will Anora will win the most awards at the 2025 Oscars?
  • 336
  • $376,276
Kalshi
D
+0.019
Manifold
D-
+0.033
Polymarket
S
-0.139
Will Cillian Murphy win Best Actor at the 2024 Oscars?
  • 242
  • $181,319
Kalshi
C
+0.000
Manifold
C+
-0.001
Polymarket
C
+0.001