Will Kieran Culkin win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?
  • 129
  • 315
  • $425,865
If Kieran Culkin wins Best Supporting Actor at the 97th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 97th Academy Awards are expected to take place on March 2, 2025, and will honor movies released in 2024. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor when the nominees are announced, the market immediately resolves to "No". In case of a tie or if no winner is declared by June 30, 2025, or in case of an error with the official information, the market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose last name comes first in alphabetical order.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityNov2024DecJan2025FebMar

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 130
  • $271,317

Will Kieran Culkin win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars? | Kieran Culkin:: A Real Pain

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1156
-0.4155
0.8890
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1677
-0.5268
0.8218
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0676
-0.3011
0.9435
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.0169
-0.1393
0.9890
Relative Score
C-
+0.005
-0.015
-0.005
  • Manifold
  • 39
  • 26
  • $82

Who will win Best Supporting Actor? (2025 Oscars) | Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0207
-0.1553
0.9862
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0277
-0.1821
0.9806
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0739
-0.3171
0.9369
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0100
-0.1054
0.9939
Relative Score
C
+0.000
-0.002
-0.000
  • Polymarket
  • 41
  • 289
  • $154,466

Will Kieran Culkin win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0182
-0.1450
0.9880
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0261
-0.1763
0.9819
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0676
-0.3011
0.9435
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0090
-0.0998
0.9945
Relative Score
C+
-0.002
+0.008
+0.002
  • Overall
  • 129
  • 315
  • $425,865
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0515
-0.2386
0.9544
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0738
-0.2951
0.9281
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0697
-0.3064
0.9413
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0120
-0.1148
0.9925

Similar Questions

Will Adrien Brody win Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars?
  • 1,027
  • $547,055
Kalshi
C
+0.002
Manifold
C
+0.005
Polymarket
C
+0.000
Will Sean Baker win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars?
  • 934
  • $388,374
Kalshi
A
-0.019
Manifold
C-
+0.009
Polymarket
D+
+0.014
Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?
  • 529
  • $671,269
Kalshi
A
-0.024
Manifold
F
+0.042
Polymarket
C+
-0.000
Will Anora will win the most awards at the 2025 Oscars?
  • 336
  • $376,276
Kalshi
D
+0.019
Manifold
D-
+0.033
Polymarket
S
-0.139
Will Cillian Murphy win Best Actor at the 2024 Oscars?
  • 242
  • $181,319
Kalshi
C
+0.000
Manifold
C+
-0.001
Polymarket
C
+0.001
Will Zoe Saldana win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars?
  • 35
  • $211,713
Kalshi
B+
-0.010
Manifold
C-
+0.010