Will Emma Stone win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?
  • 156
  • 141
  • $122,910
This market resolves to Yes if Emma Stone wins Best Actress at the 96th Academy Awards, with a resolution criteria based on official information from the Academy Awards and Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. The primary resolution source is data from their website and the live broadcast of the award ceremony. If no winner is declared by December 31, 2024, or in case of a tie for winner, it resolves to No.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityNov2023DecJan2024FebMar

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 151
  • $69,231

Will Emma Stone win Best Actress at the Oscars? | Emma Stone :: Poor Things

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3600
-0.9163
0.5547
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3155
-0.8248
0.6152
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1369
-0.4620
0.8623
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3481
-0.8916
0.5707
Relative Score
A+
-0.049
+0.112
+0.061
  • Manifold
  • 157
  • 52
  • $674

Who will win the Best Actress in a Leading Role Oscar at the 2024 Academy Awards? | Emma Stone – Poor Things

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4107
-1.0241
0.4888
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4275
-1.0609
0.4679
30 Days Before Close
F
0.3550
-0.9058
0.5614
7 Days Before Close
F
0.5034
-1.2361
0.3789
Relative Score
F
+0.063
-0.145
-0.077
  • Metaculus
  • 59
  • 13

Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Actress)

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3509
-0.8973
0.5669
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3454
-0.8860
0.5743
30 Days Before Close
F
0.3509
-0.8973
0.5669
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3440
-0.8832
0.5761
Relative Score
F
+0.046
-0.093
-0.065
  • Polymarket
  • 46
  • 76
  • $53,005

Will Emma Stone win the Oscar for Best Actress?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1600
-0.5108
0.8321
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2167
-0.6264
0.7542
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1936
-0.5798
0.7863
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3660
-0.9289
0.5467
Relative Score
A+
-0.044
+0.089
+0.060
  • Overall
  • 156
  • 141
  • $122,910
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3204
-0.8371
0.6106
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3263
-0.8495
0.6029
30 Days Before Close
F
0.2591
-0.7112
0.6942
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3904
-0.9849
0.5181

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