Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public before 2025?
  • 2,264
  • 1,145
  • $273,034
Several entities are speculating about the identity of Bitcoin's creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, with estimates suggesting he is worth over $10Bn. The mystery surrounding his true identity has led to extensive speculation and amateur detective work, but no conclusive evidence has been found. Speculation includes claims that Nakamoto may have lost a thumb drive containing information about himself, while others believe the answer lies in the fact that Nakamoto is estimated to have more than a million bitcoins mined very early on. The resolution of this mystery will be confirmed if Satoshi's true identity is revealed to the world at large before April 5, 2025, or not confirmed by December 31, 2024, depending on the market.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability2019202020212022202320242025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0113
-0.1126
0.9930
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0132
-0.1219
0.9917
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0009
-0.0309
0.9995
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0008
-0.0283
0.9996
Relative Score
A
-0.021
+0.082
+0.021
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0023
-0.0487
0.9988
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0080
-0.0936
0.9952
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0141
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0085
1.0000
Relative Score
D
+0.021
-0.082
-0.021
  • Overall
  • 2,264
  • 1,145
  • $273,034
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C+
0.0068
-0.0806
0.9959
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0106
-0.1077
0.9935
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0225
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0184
0.9998

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