Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0113 | -0.1126 | 0.9930 |
Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0132 | -0.1219 | 0.9917 |
30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0009 | -0.0309 | 0.9995 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0008 | -0.0283 | 0.9996 |
Relative Score | A | -0.021 | +0.082 | +0.021 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | B+ | 0.0023 | -0.0487 | 0.9988 |
Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0080 | -0.0936 | 0.9952 |
30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0141 | 0.9999 |
7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0085 | 1.0000 |
Relative Score | D | +0.021 | -0.082 | -0.021 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | C+ | 0.0068 | -0.0806 | 0.9959 |
Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0106 | -0.1077 | 0.9935 |
30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0006 | -0.0225 | 0.9997 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0004 | -0.0184 | 0.9998 |
Kalshi | D | +0.016 |
Manifold | F | +0.042 |
Metaculus | A | -0.016 |
Polymarket | A | -0.038 |
Kalshi | C- | +0.007 |
Manifold | C- | +0.008 |
Polymarket | C | +0.001 |