Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?
  • 376
  • 297
  • $503
The question at hand is whether Bitcoin's value will increase over the course of 2023. The resolution criteria for this outcome are simple: if the closing price of Bitcoin on December 31, 2023, is higher than its opening price on January 1, 2023, then the answer is yes; otherwise, it is no. This question has been framed in various ways across different platforms, with some specifying that only Scott Alexander's judgment will be considered as authoritative. The outcome of this question will not affect participants' standings on certain tracks. Scott Alexander will determine the resolution based on his exclusive authority in his 2023 prediction contest.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2023AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0194
-0.1500
0.9871
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0258
-0.1753
0.9821
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0013
-0.0368
0.9993
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0139
0.9999
Relative Score
B-
-0.004
+0.016
+0.003
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0378
-0.2161
0.9721
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0348
-0.2066
0.9747
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0024
-0.0502
0.9987
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0015
-0.0400
0.9992
Relative Score
C
+0.004
-0.016
-0.003
  • Overall
  • 376
  • 297
  • $503
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0286
-0.1831
0.9796
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0303
-0.1909
0.9784
30 Days Before Close
A-
0.0018
-0.0435
0.9990
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0009
-0.0270
0.9995

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