Will Bitcoin hit $250k before January 2025?
  • 300
  • 8,549
  • $9,422,751
This market resolves to "Yes" if Bitcoin reaches $250,000 or greater by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET according to Binance's 30-min candlestick high prices. The resolution source is the 30-min candlestick high prices from Binance. If Binance is unavailable, a consensus of other credible sources will be used. A large data discrepancy issue with Binance may require a consensus of other sources.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024MayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 31
  • 17
  • $37

Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0002
-0.0125
0.9999
Time-Weighted Average
A+
0.0003
-0.0175
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.012
-0.002
  • Polymarket
  • 301
  • 8,532
  • $9,422,714

Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0011
-0.0334
0.9994
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0033
-0.0595
0.9981
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0123
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0030
1.0000
Relative Score
B-
-0.002
+0.012
+0.002
  • Overall
  • 300
  • 8,549
  • $9,422,751
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0006
-0.0230
0.9997
Time-Weighted Average
A-
0.0018
-0.0385
0.9990
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0123
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0065
1.0000

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