Will Bitcoin hit $100k before December 2024?
  • 258
  • 3,245
  • $30,076,768
This prediction market asks if Bitcoin's price will reach $100k before December 2024. The resolution criteria vary: one platform requires Bitcoin to exceed $99999.99 by November 29th at 7pm ET, with an average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) in a sixty minute period between 8AM and 7PM, excluding the top 20% and bottom 20%. Another platform resolves when all subsequent months after November resolve to "Yes", implying any month that starts at $100k will count. A third market resolves as soon as any Binance candle hits $100,000 or higher on November 1-30 in ET timezone.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024MayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 258
  • $1,485,367

When will Bitcoin hit $100k? | Before Nov 29th at 7pm ET

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0729
-0.3147
0.9379
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0527
-0.2607
0.9584
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0036
-0.0619
0.9980
7 Days Before Close
F
0.7225
-1.8971
0.1738
Relative Score
C-
+0.007
-0.012
-0.010
  • Manifold
  • 14
  • 25
  • $3,967

When will the Bitcoin hit $100K? | November 2024

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2407
-0.6746
0.7202
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1711
-0.5339
0.8171
7 Days Before Close
F
0.6098
-1.5183
0.2701
Relative Score
C-
+0.008
-0.006
-0.012
  • Polymarket
  • 19
  • 3,220
  • $28,587,434

Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4830
-1.1874
0.4019
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1950
-0.5827
0.7844
7 Days Before Close
F
0.7056
-1.8326
0.1871
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.010
+0.001
  • Overall
  • 258
  • 3,245
  • $30,076,768
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2656
-0.7256
0.6867
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1396
-0.4591
0.8533
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0036
-0.0619
0.9980
7 Days Before Close
F
0.6793
-1.7493
0.2103

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