Will Bitcoin hit $100k before January 2025?
  • 1,756
  • 5,683
  • $24,062,377
Bitcoin price will reach $100,000 before January 2025 if the market settles to "Yes". The resolution criteria vary across platforms: some settle at specific timestamps or candle prices, while others use averages of exchange rates based on reputable news sources or cryptocurrency exchange data. The valuation is typically in nominal USD, and some markets consider inflation adjustments. Bitcoin's past price movements, such as its 2017 peak and recent fluctuations, are referenced to provide context for these prediction markets.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability20212022202320242025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 263
  • $1,230,309

When will Bitcoin hit $100k? | Before Dec 31st at 7pm ET

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5776
-1.4271
0.3011
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4885
-1.2004
0.3956
30 Days Before Close
F
0.8100
-2.3026
0.1104
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0729
-0.3147
0.9379
Relative Score
D
+0.016
-0.091
-0.007
  • Manifold
  • 339
  • 1,136
  • $24,832

Will Bitcoin hit $100K in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5339
-1.3118
0.3459
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.5377
-1.3215
0.3418
30 Days Before Close
F
0.7281
-1.9195
0.1694
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0994
-0.3788
0.9083
Relative Score
F
+0.042
-0.117
-0.044
  • Metaculus
  • 1,730
  • 1,148

Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4100
-1.0224
0.4898
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4040
-1.0096
0.4973
30 Days Before Close
F
0.7006
-1.8141
0.1911
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0374
-0.2148
0.9725
Relative Score
A
-0.016
+0.065
+0.010
  • Polymarket
  • 275
  • 3,399
  • $22,807,236

Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4422
-1.0936
0.4499
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4310
-1.0686
0.4636
30 Days Before Close
F
0.6642
-1.6874
0.2214
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1166
-0.4178
0.8877
Relative Score
A
-0.038
+0.086
+0.047
  • Overall
  • 1,756
  • 5,683
  • $24,062,377
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4909
-1.2137
0.3967
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4653
-1.1501
0.4246
30 Days Before Close
F
0.7257
-1.9309
0.1731
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0816
-0.3315
0.9266

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