Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.2420 | -0.6772 | 0.7184 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.2558 | -0.7047 | 0.6990 |
30 Days Before Close | B+ | 0.0025 | -0.0513 | 0.9986 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0003 | -0.0181 | 0.9998 |
Relative Score | D+ | +0.014 | -0.030 | -0.018 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.2153 | -0.6237 | 0.7560 |
Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.2431 | -0.6793 | 0.7169 |
30 Days Before Close | D+ | 0.0380 | -0.2170 | 0.9719 |
7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0010 | -0.0326 | 0.9994 |
Relative Score | A- | -0.014 | +0.030 | +0.018 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.2287 | -0.6504 | 0.7372 |
Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.2494 | -0.6920 | 0.7079 |
30 Days Before Close | C- | 0.0203 | -0.1341 | 0.9852 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0007 | -0.0254 | 0.9996 |
Kalshi | D | +0.016 |
Manifold | F | +0.042 |
Metaculus | A | -0.016 |
Polymarket | A | -0.038 |
Kalshi | C- | +0.007 |
Manifold | C- | +0.008 |
Polymarket | C | +0.001 |