Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?
  • 376
  • 485
  • $913
Prediction contestants have created markets to wager on whether Bitcoin's price will exceed $30,000 at the end of 2023. The contest rules and details can be found on Astral Codex Ten, with the market resolution ultimately decided by Scott Alexander's judgment. Some platforms reserve the authority for Scott Alexander alone, while others note that predictions on their site won't influence his evaluation. The outcome will be determined based on future posts from Scott Alexander, providing a clear point of reference for the markets. Participants can only improve their track record through successful predictions on these platforms.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2023AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2420
-0.6772
0.7184
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2558
-0.7047
0.6990
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0025
-0.0513
0.9986
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0181
0.9998
Relative Score
D+
+0.014
-0.030
-0.018
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2153
-0.6237
0.7560
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2431
-0.6793
0.7169
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0380
-0.2170
0.9719
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0010
-0.0326
0.9994
Relative Score
A-
-0.014
+0.030
+0.018
  • Overall
  • 376
  • 485
  • $913
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2287
-0.6504
0.7372
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2494
-0.6920
0.7079
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0203
-0.1341
0.9852
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0254
0.9996

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