Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?
  • 375
  • 368
  • $772
The S&P 500 index is expected to end the year higher than it began, with a resolution based solely on the judgment of Scott Alexander. The prediction contest, hosted on Astral Codex Ten, involves the evaluation of whether the index will reach new highs before closing time on December 31st. Only predictions from Scott Alexander will be considered as final determinants. In contrast, Metaculus users can participate but their scores will not impact the overall outcome. The contest aims to gauge confidence in the future performance of the S&P 500 index.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2023AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 375
  • 231
  • $772

31. Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0327
-0.1994
0.9765
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0275
-0.1812
0.9808
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0011
-0.0330
0.9994
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0253
0.9997
Relative Score
A-
-0.012
+0.034
+0.013
  • Metaculus
  • 374
  • 137

Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0330
-0.2003
0.9763
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0465
-0.2430
0.9642
30 Days Before Close
B-
0.0048
-0.0717
0.9973
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0218
0.9998
Relative Score
D+
+0.012
-0.034
-0.013
  • Overall
  • 375
  • 368
  • $772
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0328
-0.1999
0.9764
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0370
-0.2121
0.9725
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0029
-0.0523
0.9983
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0235
0.9997

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