Will there be another country to accept Bitcoin as legal tender before January 2025?
  • 379
  • 834
  • $338,275
Will another country accept Bitcoin as legal tender before January 2025? This prediction involves the adoption of Bitcoin by a sovereign nation's government. For the market to resolve in favor of "Yes", at least one country must announce its first-ever purchase of Bitcoin within the specified timeframe, which spans from February 28, 2024, to December 31, 2024, at 11:59 PM ET. The resolution is contingent upon official announcements from relevant governments and corroborated by credible reporting.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 379
  • 15
  • $66

Will there be another country to accept Bitcoin as legal tender until end of 2024, except El Salvador?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1394
-0.4674
0.8591
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1376
-0.4636
0.8613
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0671
-0.2997
0.9440
7 Days Before Close
C+
0.0060
-0.0806
0.9965
Relative Score
C-
+0.008
-0.024
-0.007
  • Polymarket
  • 308
  • 819
  • $338,209

Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2025
-0.5978
0.7740
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.1006
-0.3814
0.9070
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0144
-0.1278
0.9908
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0016
-0.0403
0.9992
Relative Score
B+
-0.008
+0.024
+0.007
  • Overall
  • 379
  • 834
  • $338,275
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1710
-0.5326
0.8165
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1191
-0.4225
0.8842
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0407
-0.2138
0.9674
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0038
-0.0604
0.9978

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