Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?
  • 961
  • 2,056
  • $12,623,395
Several proposals for bitcoin ETFs have been submitted to the SEC over the last 5 years, but none have been approved yet. The main issue with existing closed-end funds like GBTC is that their price doesn't accurately track bitcoin due to lack of share creation/redemption mechanism. An ETF that puts >95% of its NAV into bitcoin would be sufficient for approval. Retail investors can already buy GBTC, which approximately tracks bitcoin but with additional random fluctuations. The SEC's decision would not be justified if the existing product wouldn't be approved.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJul2021OctJan2022AprJulOctJan2023AprJulOctJan2024

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 373
  • 64
  • $977

Will the SEC approve a bitcoin ETF before Jan 20 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2004
-0.5936
0.7769
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1432
-0.4755
0.8542
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0155
-0.1330
0.9900
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0368
-0.2130
0.9729
Relative Score
C-
+0.007
-0.007
-0.014
  • Metaculus
  • 962
  • 148

Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1508
-0.4916
0.8442
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1386
-0.4656
0.8601
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0251
-0.1724
0.9828
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0279
-0.1826
0.9805
Relative Score
B
-0.007
+0.008
+0.014
  • Polymarket
  • 40
  • 1,844
  • $12,622,418

Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0196
-0.1508
0.9870
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0357
-0.2095
0.9739
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0380
-0.2169
0.9719
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0144
-0.1278
0.9908
Relative Score
D
+0.018
-0.047
-0.019
  • Overall
  • 961
  • 2,056
  • $12,623,395
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1236
-0.4120
0.8694
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.1058
-0.3835
0.8961
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0262
-0.1741
0.9816
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0264
-0.1745
0.9814

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