Will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment at the end of 2023?
  • 376
  • 623
  • $1,285
Qualifying companies are Meta, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Tesla, and Twitter. The company must announce that one of its major services (not an experimental or gimmick service) will take payment in a crypto token which can be easily exchanged from most major cryptocurrencies on at least one large exchange without an intermediate fiat step. If a company has announced this, they do not need to have implemented the payment system by the resolution date for the question to resolve positive, as long as they are still widely expected to do so. The state of world on 1/1/24 is key, if a company announces but then backtracks before then, it will not qualify. Resolution depends on Scott Alexander's judgment.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2023AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1145
-0.4132
0.8903
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0768
-0.3246
0.9337
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0079
-0.0929
0.9953
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0014
-0.0379
0.9993
Relative Score
D+
+0.014
-0.028
-0.018
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0644
-0.2928
0.9467
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0591
-0.2784
0.9521
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0231
-0.1649
0.9843
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0014
-0.0378
0.9993
Relative Score
A-
-0.014
+0.028
+0.018
  • Overall
  • 376
  • 623
  • $1,285
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0895
-0.3530
0.9185
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0679
-0.3015
0.9429
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0155
-0.1289
0.9898
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0014
-0.0378
0.9993

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