Will "Astro Bot" win Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2024?
  • 150
  • 1,933
  • $644,066
Astro Bot is a highly anticipated platformer developed by Team Asobi and published by Sony Interactive Entertainment for the PlayStation 5. Released in celebration of PlayStation's 30th anniversary, it has sold 1.5 million units as of November 2024 and received universal acclaim from critics with a score of 94 on Metacritic. With the Game Awards ceremony scheduled for December 12, 2024, Astro Bot is widely considered a favourite to win Game of the Year, which would resolve as Yes if it takes home the award. If Astro Bot does not win Game of the Year or shares the award with another game, this outcome will be counted. The market resolution criteria rely on official information from The Game Awards and credible reporting sources.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityAug2024SepOctNovDec

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 151
  • $224,612

2024 Game of the Year? | Astro Bot

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1296
-0.4463
0.8716
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2681
-0.7293
0.6816
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1296
-0.4463
0.8716
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3600
-0.9163
0.5547
Relative Score
S
-0.177
+0.496
+0.207
  • Manifold
  • 128
  • 109
  • $546

Which game will win Game of the Year at the 2024 Game Awards? | Astro Bot

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5083
-1.2481
0.3735
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.5706
-1.4080
0.3081
30 Days Before Close
F
0.5105
-1.2536
0.3710
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3734
-0.9444
0.5369
Relative Score
F
+0.159
-0.458
-0.182
  • Metaculus
  • 28
  • 65

Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5727
-1.4137
0.3060
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.5597
-1.3789
0.3191
7 Days Before Close
F
0.6223
-1.5553
0.2585
Relative Score
F
+0.169
-0.398
-0.196
  • Polymarket
  • 21
  • 1,759
  • $418,908

Will 'Astro Bot' win Game of the Year?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3136
-0.8210
0.6178
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3471
-0.8896
0.5720
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3080
-0.8097
0.6256
Relative Score
A-
-0.013
+0.026
+0.017
  • Overall
  • 150
  • 1,933
  • $644,066
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3810
-0.9823
0.5422
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4364
-1.1014
0.4702
30 Days Before Close
F
0.3201
-0.8499
0.6213
7 Days Before Close
F
0.4159
-1.0564
0.4939

Similar Questions

Will "Inside Out 2" be the global highest-grossing movie in 2024?
  • 2,796
  • $8,910,313
Manifold
A+
-0.041
Polymarket
F
+0.041
Will Dune: Part Two win Best Sound at the 2025 Oscars?
  • 416
  • $145,408
Kalshi
A-
-0.015
Manifold
D
+0.018
Polymarket
B-
-0.003
Will Oppenheimer win Best Picture at the 2024 Oscars?
  • 390
  • $274,653
Kalshi
C+
-0.002
Manifold
C-
+0.005
Polymarket
C+
-0.001
Will Conclave win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?
  • 375
  • $123,498
Kalshi
C+
-0.001
Manifold
C
+0.003
Polymarket
C
+0.002
Will Flow win Best Animated Feature at the 2025 Oscars?
  • 170
  • $270,411
Kalshi
A
-0.023
Manifold
D
+0.018
Polymarket
D
+0.019
Will AI win a programming competition in 2023?
  • 415
  • $340
Manifold
A
-0.028
Metaculus
D-
+0.028