Will "Inside Out 2" be the global highest-grossing movie in 2024?
  • 336
  • 2,796
  • $8,910,313
This market assesses whether "Inside Out 2" will be the highest-grossing movie globally in 2024. The outcome will be determined on December 31st of that year, using calendar grosses from BoxOfficeMojo. In the event of a tie, alphabetical order is used to break the tie. If no final data is available by January 7th, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The market pays out according to a tiered scale, with payouts ranging from 90% for the top spot to 10% for each subsequent position, down to "NO" for no higher-grossing movie.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 279
  • 9
  • $848

What will be the highest-grossing movies at the 2024 global box office (depreciating payouts)? | Inside Out 2

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0126
-0.1191
0.9921
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0749
-0.3198
0.9357
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0012
-0.0357
0.9993
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0009
-0.0308
0.9995
Relative Score
A+
-0.041
+0.125
+0.040
  • Polymarket
  • 337
  • 2,787
  • $8,909,465

Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0552
-0.2679
0.9559
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1743
-0.5404
0.8128
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0008
-0.0289
0.9996
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0065
1.0000
Relative Score
F
+0.041
-0.125
-0.040
  • Overall
  • 336
  • 2,796
  • $8,910,313
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0339
-0.1935
0.9740
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1246
-0.4301
0.8743
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0010
-0.0323
0.9995
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0187
0.9997

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