Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?
  • 505
  • 3,650
  • $662,333
These markets are focused on determining whether 2024 will be the hottest year on record. The resolution criteria vary across platforms, with some requiring an increase in temperature above a specific threshold, while others rely on NASA's official data or a consensus among credible sources. In one market, the value of 2023 is used as a benchmark to compare with 2024, whereas another platform uses a more direct approach, resolving immediately if the 2024 data shows an anomaly of 1.18°C or greater. The markets will close or resolve at specific times, depending on when the 2024 data becomes available. Ultimately, these markets aim to provide a collective assessment of whether 2024's temperature is record-breaking.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityOct2023Jan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 505
  • $113,670

Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | Higher of 1.02°C/2023 temperature

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1600
-0.5108
0.8321
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0932
-0.3642
0.9155
30 Days Before Close
B-
0.0049
-0.0726
0.9972
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0009
-0.0305
0.9995
Relative Score
B
-0.005
-0.001
+0.008
  • Manifold
  • 454
  • 1,873
  • $4,985

Will the average global temperature in 2024 exceed 2023?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.1018
-0.3843
0.9055
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0683
-0.3028
0.9428
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0126
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0105
0.9999
Relative Score
C-
+0.007
-0.012
-0.010
  • Polymarket
  • 360
  • 1,777
  • $543,678

Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0725
-0.3136
0.9384
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0444
-0.2366
0.9662
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0108
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0095
1.0000
Relative Score
C
+0.003
-0.003
-0.005
  • Overall
  • 505
  • 3,650
  • $662,333
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1114
-0.4029
0.8920
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0686
-0.3012
0.9415
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0017
-0.0320
0.9990
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0168
0.9998

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