Will July 2024 be the hottest July on record?
  • 198
  • 1,266
  • $2,730,812
This market resolves to "Yes" if data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index in July 2024 exceeds all previous records when released. A tie with another year does not suffice; the date must be higher. The primary source of resolution is NASA's Global Temperature Index, but alternative information will be used if unavailable. If no data from NASA is provided by November 1, 2024, a consensus of credible sources will resolve the market. The comparison will be made to all previous data points for July when the 2024 data is released.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityFeb2024MarAprMayJunJulAug

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 50
  • $13,351

Will Jul 2024 be the hottest Jul ever? | Jul 2024

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5476
-1.3471
0.3315
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.5692
-1.4042
0.3095
30 Days Before Close
F
0.6084
-1.5141
0.2715
7 Days Before Close
F
0.7744
-2.1203
0.1351
Relative Score
F
+0.105
-0.271
-0.118
  • Manifold
  • 198
  • 171
  • $1,547

Will July 2024 be the hottest July on record?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0947
-0.3677
0.9138
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2491
-0.6914
0.7083
30 Days Before Close
F
0.6400
-1.6094
0.2425
7 Days Before Close
F
0.7764
-2.1300
0.1337
Relative Score
A
-0.038
+0.069
+0.053
  • Polymarket
  • 31
  • 1,095
  • $2,715,914

2024 July hottest on record?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3422
-0.8795
0.5786
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2708
-0.7348
0.6777
7 Days Before Close
F
0.4096
-1.0217
0.4903
Relative Score
S
-0.249
+0.571
+0.305
  • Overall
  • 198
  • 1,266
  • $2,730,812
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3282
-0.8648
0.6080
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3631
-0.9435
0.5652
30 Days Before Close
F
0.6242
-1.5618
0.2570
7 Days Before Close
F
0.6535
-1.7573
0.2530

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