Will November 2024 be the hottest November on record?
  • 133
  • 709
  • $2,000,563
This market resolves to "Yes" if the November 2024 Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data shows an increase greater than that of any prior November. To qualify, 2024 November must be higher than all previous data points, with no ties allowed. The primary resolution source is NASA's "Global Temperature Index," and if unavailable, other information from NASA will be used. If NASA's report is not released by March 1, 2025, a consensus of credible sources will resolve the market. Resolution criteria: higher than all previous November data points, no ties allowed.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilitySep2024OctNovDec

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 39
  • $268,651

Will Nov 2024 be the hottest Nov ever? | Nov 2024

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1225
-0.4308
0.8805
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.1033
-0.3877
0.9038
30 Days Before Close
F
0.3364
-0.8675
0.5865
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0100
-0.1054
0.9939
Relative Score
F
+0.058
-0.125
-0.075
  • Manifold
  • 134
  • 17
  • $118

NOAA - Will November 2024 be the hottest November on record? (Global)

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1187
-0.4224
0.8852
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0922
-0.3619
0.9166
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0514
-0.2570
0.9596
7 Days Before Close
A-
0.0019
-0.0442
0.9990
Relative Score
A
-0.024
+0.046
+0.033
  • Polymarket
  • 34
  • 692
  • $1,731,794

2024 November hottest on record?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0003
-0.0161
0.9999
Time-Weighted Average
B-
0.0045
-0.0696
0.9974
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0289
-0.1863
0.9797
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0055
1.0000
Relative Score
A-
-0.015
+0.067
+0.012
  • Overall
  • 133
  • 709
  • $2,000,563
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0805
-0.2898
0.9218
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0667
-0.2731
0.9393
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1389
-0.4369
0.8419
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0040
-0.0517
0.9976

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