Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?
  • 405
  • 1,423
  • $874,223
The 2023 global average temperature will exceed the revised 1998 record of 1.01°C if the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2023 is above 1.02°C as reported by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. The resolution criteria is based on the value in the No_Smoothing column at the Source Agency link. Markets may also resolve to "Yes" if prior years' figures are revised, such as for the year 2020, which was previously recorded as 1.02°C but revised down to 1.01°C. The market will close on December 31, 2023, and will expire at the sooner of 10:00 AM following the release of data or March 31, 2024. If NASA's Global Temperature Index is rendered unavailable, other information from NASA may be used to determine the outcome.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2023AprJulOctJan2024

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1434
-0.4760
0.8539
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1740
-0.5398
0.8132
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0188
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Relative Score
D
+0.022
-0.064
-0.022
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3426
-0.8802
0.5781
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1773
-0.5465
0.8087
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0141
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0157
0.9999
Relative Score
A
-0.021
+0.058
+0.022
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0014
-0.0382
0.9992
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0139
-0.1252
0.9912
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0139
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0097
1.0000
Relative Score
C
+0.001
+0.000
-0.002
  • Overall
  • 405
  • 1,423
  • $874,223
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1625
-0.4648
0.8104
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1217
-0.4038
0.8711
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0156
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0118
0.9999

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