Will 2021 be the hottest year on record?
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If Earth's average global surface temperature in 2021 exceeds that of any year from 1880 to 2021 by more than 2.124℉, then the record is broken. The resolution criteria involve NASA's announcement on whether 2021 is the hottest year on record, with a tiebreaker involving NOAA numbers if necessary. Historical records suggest the planet's temperature has continued to rise since 2016, when it was previously the warmest year on record. The outcome of this assessment will determine whether 2021 surpasses that mark. A more ambiguous resolution process is employed in cases where multiple datasets are tied.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2021AprJulOctJan2022

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0009
-0.0305
0.9995
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0041
-0.0659
0.9977
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0035
-0.0613
0.9980
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
Relative Score
B-
-0.004
+0.023
+0.002
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0722
-0.3130
0.9386
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0649
-0.2941
0.9462
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0126
-0.1191
0.9921
7 Days Before Close
A-
0.0019
-0.0445
0.9990
Relative Score
C
+0.004
-0.023
-0.002
  • Overall
  • 383
  • 201
  • $125,156
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0366
-0.1717
0.9691
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0345
-0.1800
0.9720
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0081
-0.0902
0.9951
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0011
-0.0324
0.9994

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