Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | A+ | 0.0009 | -0.0305 | 0.9995 |
Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0041 | -0.0659 | 0.9977 |
30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0035 | -0.0613 | 0.9980 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0004 | -0.0202 | 0.9998 |
Relative Score | B- | -0.004 | +0.023 | +0.002 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D | 0.0722 | -0.3130 | 0.9386 |
Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.0649 | -0.2941 | 0.9462 |
30 Days Before Close | C | 0.0126 | -0.1191 | 0.9921 |
7 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0019 | -0.0445 | 0.9990 |
Relative Score | C | +0.004 | -0.023 | -0.002 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D+ | 0.0366 | -0.1717 | 0.9691 |
Time-Weighted Average | D+ | 0.0345 | -0.1800 | 0.9720 |
30 Days Before Close | C | 0.0081 | -0.0902 | 0.9951 |
7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0011 | -0.0324 | 0.9994 |
Kalshi | D- | +0.025 |
Manifold | F | +0.044 |
Polymarket | S | -0.085 |
Kalshi | F | +0.059 |
Manifold | F | +0.042 |
Polymarket | A+ | -0.045 |