Will August 2024 be the hottest August on record?
  • 147
  • 1,032
  • $3,622,812
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2024 is higher than any prior August, as confirmed by data from a reliable source such as NASA or another trusted provider. The primary resolution source will be the figures found in NASA's table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug". If no information for August 2024 is provided by December 1, 2024, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve the market. A tie will not suffice to resolve the market to "Yes", it must be higher than all previous data points. The resolution will be confirmed at some point after the data is first released for August 2024.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMay2024JunJulAugSep

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 26
  • $12,042

Will Aug 2024 be the hottest Aug ever? | Aug 2024

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1225
-0.4308
0.8805
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1395
-0.4676
0.8590
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.2025
-0.5978
0.7740
Relative Score
F
+0.059
-0.144
-0.068
  • Manifold
  • 148
  • 101
  • $456

Will August 2024 be the hottest August on record?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0396
-0.2218
0.9705
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0623
-0.2871
0.9489
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1650
-0.5212
0.8254
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0625
-0.2877
0.9487
Relative Score
F
+0.042
-0.100
-0.055
  • Polymarket
  • 40
  • 931
  • $3,610,314

2024 August hottest on record?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0144
-0.1278
0.9908
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0259
-0.1755
0.9821
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0484
-0.2485
0.9624
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0017
-0.0424
0.9991
Relative Score
A+
-0.045
+0.136
+0.047
  • Overall
  • 147
  • 1,032
  • $3,622,812
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0588
-0.2601
0.9473
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0759
-0.3101
0.9300
30 Days Before Close
D
0.1067
-0.3848
0.8939
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0889
-0.3093
0.9072

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