Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2024?
  • 333
  • 1,635
  • $461,426
These prediction markets ask whether Apple will be the largest company in the world by market capitalization on December 31, 2024. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with "Yes" resolving to Apple being the largest and "No" resolving if it's not. A market close on December 31 is used as the reference point for comparison. The resolution criteria relies on a general agreement among reputable sources. If there's no clear consensus, the market would resolve to "No".

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 334
  • 304
  • $987

Which company will be the biggest worldwide by market cap at the end of 2024? | Apple

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4192
-1.0426
0.4782
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3884
-0.9761
0.5174
30 Days Before Close
F
0.3664
-0.9296
0.5462
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0010
-0.0320
0.9995
Relative Score
D-
+0.033
-0.079
-0.042
  • Polymarket
  • 40
  • 1,331
  • $460,438

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C+
0.0064
-0.0834
0.9962
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0466
-0.2431
0.9641
30 Days Before Close
D
0.1056
-0.3930
0.9010
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0161
0.9999
Relative Score
A
-0.033
+0.079
+0.042
  • Overall
  • 333
  • 1,635
  • $461,426
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2128
-0.5630
0.7372
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2175
-0.6096
0.7408
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.2360
-0.6613
0.7236
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0241
0.9997

Similar Questions

Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?
  • 3,650
  • $662,333
Kalshi
B
-0.005
Manifold
C-
+0.007
Polymarket
C
+0.003
Will "Inside Out 2" be the global highest-grossing movie in 2024?
  • 2,796
  • $8,910,313
Manifold
A+
-0.041
Polymarket
F
+0.041
Will Google have the top LLM on LMArena on April 1, 2025?
  • 1,819
  • $912,124
Kalshi
A
-0.018
Manifold
D
+0.017
Polymarket
C
+0.002
Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the US file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?
  • 207
  • $44
Manifold
C
+0.001
Metaculus
C+
-0.001
Will Apple announce a foldable phone before January 2025?
  • 10
  • $30,116
Kalshi
C
+0.004
Manifold
B-
-0.004
Will OpenAI lose the top LLM Leaderboard spot in 2024?
  • 8
  • $157,163
Kalshi
D
+0.017
Manifold
A
-0.017