Will Google have the top LLM on LMArena on April 1, 2025?
  • 40
  • 1,819
  • $912,124
These markets speculate on whether Google's AI model will be ranked as the best in March 2025. If Google tops the leaderboard, the outcome is "Yes". A tie would resolve to "No", referring specifically to the ranking column, not the Arena Elo Score. The resolution criteria is based solely on a single date in March 2025. The markets seem to focus primarily on Google's performance at that time.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability23Feb2Mar9162330

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 39
  • $236,811

Best AI in Mar 2025? | Gemini:: Google

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.8649
-2.6593
0.0751
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.6148
-1.5329
0.2655
30 Days Before Close
F
0.8464
-2.5257
0.0866
7 Days Before Close
F
0.9409
-3.5066
0.0309
Relative Score
A
-0.018
+0.159
+0.012
  • Manifold
  • 41
  • 197
  • $7,436

Which company has best AI model end of March? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard) | Google

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.8836
-2.8134
0.0637
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.6311
-1.5818
0.2506
30 Days Before Close
F
0.7989
-2.2425
0.1180
7 Days Before Close
F
0.7744
-2.1203
0.1351
Relative Score
D
+0.017
-0.111
-0.012
  • Polymarket
  • 5
  • 1,622
  • $667,877

Will Google have the top AI model on March 31?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0003
-0.0161
0.9999
Time-Weighted Average
A+
0.0004
-0.0203
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
F
0.8978
-2.9469
0.0553
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.076
-0.001
  • Overall
  • 40
  • 1,819
  • $912,124
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5829
-1.8296
0.3795
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4154
-1.0450
0.5053
30 Days Before Close
F
0.8227
-2.3841
0.1023
7 Days Before Close
F
0.8710
-2.8579
0.0738

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